The Supreme Court’s Fall Term: Maps, Money, and Rules

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The Supreme Court’s Fall Term: Maps, Money, and Rules

The Court’s 2025–26 term features three election-related cases that could reshape the 2026 midterms across the South. At stake: who can challenge election rules, whether protections for minority voting power survive, and how much money parties can spend directly with candidates. The answers could change maps, lawsuits, and campaign funding in states where a handful of seats decide control of Congress.

Who can challenge election rules? Bost v. Illinois State Board of Elections (Arg. Oct. 8)

Illinois counts mail ballots up to 14 days after Election Day if they’re postmarked on time. The Court will decide whether candidates themselves have the right to sue over rules like this. If they do, expect more—and faster—lawsuits over deadlines, drop boxes, and signature rules, especially in battleground states like GA and NC.

What happens to minority voting protections? Louisiana v. Callais (Re-arg. this fall)
Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act requires states to draw districts that give minority communities a fair chance to elect candidates of their choice. Louisiana’s map created an additional majority-Black district, and challengers say that move itself was unconstitutional. A ruling against Section 2 could reduce court-ordered minority districts in the South, shifting several seats.

How much party-candidate coordination is allowed? NRSC v. FEC (Arg. this term)

Federal law limits how much money political parties can spend in coordination with their candidates. Republican committees argue those caps violate free speech. If the Court strikes them, parties could pour unlimited funds directly into races, concentrating national money in tight Southern contests.

The bottom line: These cases aren’t technical—they go to the core of maps, money, and rules of the game. The South will feel the earliest and biggest impact, with decisions likely by June 2026.

Supreme Court allows President Trump to remove FTC commissioner, citing agency control

In a decision without a full explanation, the Supreme Court granted an emergency stay that lets President Trump fire Democratic Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter from the FTC while litigation proceeds. The case is widely seen as a test of whether the Humphrey’s Executor doctrine (which shields independent-agency officials from removal without cause) will survive under this Court.

Federal judiciary warns of operational strain in case of government shutdown

A memo from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts cautions that if Congress fails to fund the judiciary by October 3, many court functions will be unsustainable. Although some constitutional or emergency duties will continue, staff furloughs are likely, undermining access to justice at the district and circuit levels.

OMB instructs agencies to prepare mass firings amid looming funding lapse

Unlike prior shutdowns, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget has ordered agencies to draft “reduction in force” (RIF) plans—meaning permanent layoffs—for programs left unfunded. This signals a more aggressive approach to budget impasses, with staff in non-essential programs particularly at risk.

Lisa Cook sues to block removal from Federal Reserve; appeals courts defend her seat

Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed suit in D.C. district court, arguing that her August 2025 removal violated the “for cause” protection in the Federal Reserve Act. A preliminary injunction was granted, and the D.C. Circuit subsequently barred her removal until after the FOMC meeting. Former Fed chairs and secretaries from both parties have filed briefs supporting her continued tenure.

DOJ sues six states over voter registration data compliance

The Justice Department sued California, New York, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania for allegedly refusing to provide full voter registration data sets, including sensitive private identifiers. The suits raise concerns over federal overreach, privacy, and the balance between state elections control and federal data demands.

House passes 7-week stopgap spending bill to stave off shutdown

• The U.S. House approved a short-term funding measure to keep the government open through mid-November. The move shifts the clock and pressure onto the Senate to act before the new expiration.

NC enacts “Iryna’s Law” tightening pretrial release rules

• In response to a public outcry over a fatal stabbing of a refugee, North Carolina’s GOP legislature passed Iryna’s Law, which limits cashless bail for certain offenses, increases oversight in pretrial release, and mandates mental health evaluations in certain cases. The bill also includes controversial provisions to resume executions via alternative methods in some circumstances.

House committee passes sweeping State Department oversight reform amid partisan rancor

• The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced a major reforms package (H.R. 5300, Department of State Policy Provisions Act) that would reshape how U.S. diplomacy and aid operate—cutting USAID footprint, limiting foreign aid, and expanding executive control. Democrats accused Republicans of inserting “poison pills” and bypassing oversight.

Senators Hawley & Blumenthal unveil bipartisan AI evaluation bill

• Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) introduced the Artificial Intelligence Risk Evaluation Act, which would require advanced AI systems to undergo risk assessments and compliance before deployment.

Alabama Gov. Ivey declines special session to redraw Senate map

• After a federal court ruled the state’s Senate districts dilute Black voter influence, the court ordered new lines. Governor Kay Ivey announced she will not call a special session to redraw, meaning the court may take control of redistricting. The move sets up a high-stakes judicial vs legislative fight over map authority.

Power movers (from left): Ashley Moody, Jay Collins, Marlene Louise Sanders, Bryan Stirling, and Chris Beeker III.

Former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody was sworn into the U.S. Senate after her appointment by Gov. Ron DeSantis. A close Trump ally, Moody enters Washington with an established statewide profile, immediately making Florida’s 2026 Senate race one of the nation’s marquee contests as Democrats weigh potential challengers.

Gov. Ron DeSantis also elevated State Sen. Jay Collins to Lieutenant Governor. A decorated Green Beret and Appropriations Committee member, Collins has been a vocal conservative on veterans’ and public safety issues, giving the governor a proven legislative ally in a key statewide role.

In North Carolina, Gov. Josh Stein appointed former Merck policy director Marlene Louise Sanders to the state’s Biotechnology Center Board. Her addition reflects Stein’s effort to link industry expertise with economic development, especially as Research Triangle Park cements its role as a biotech hub.

The Palmetto State gained a new top federal prosecutor as Bryan Stirling, longtime head of the Department of Corrections, became U.S. Attorney for South Carolina. Known for navigating prison reform and crisis management, Stirling brings deep law-enforcement ties that could shape prosecutions on organized crime and corruption.

Alabama’s Public Service Commission added Chris Beeker III, a former USDA Rural Development director with experience on rural energy and infrastructure. His appointment could carry weight as the Public Service Commission faces decisions on rates, grid modernization, and new industrial projects.

➡️ Upcoming Events

• Oct. 23–24, 2025 — National Governors Association Policy Summit — Louisville, KY
• Oct. 29 — Bipartisan Policy Center: PERMITTING SUMMIT 2025 — Washington, DC
• Nov. 12–15, 2025 — National Council of Insurance Legislators Annual Meeting — Atlanta, GA
• Nov 13, 2025 — Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association Winter Conference— Washington, DC
• Nov. 16–19, 2025 — National Foundation for Women Legislators Annual Conference — New Orleans, LA
• Nov. 17, 2025 — Republican Governors Association Annual Conference — San Antonio, TX
• Nov. 21–23, 2025 — Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting — Tampa, FL

Sept 25 — U.S. economy revised to 3.8% growth in Q2

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its final estimate for second-quarter GDP, upgrading growth to a robust 3.8% annualized rate (from prior estimates around 3.3%). Consumer spending was a major driver, and imports dropped sharply, boosting the net number. The revision suggests more resilience in the U.S. economy than many anticipated—raising questions about whether monetary easing can proceed without triggering overheating.

Sept 26 — Jobless claims fall even as labor market softens

Initial unemployment claims dropped by 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 20, the lowest in two months. Still, the broader hiring picture is weak: over the past three months, average monthly job gains have shrunk (≈ 29,000) compared to previous periods, signaling an easing job market.

Sept 26 — Inflation stays above target but markets bet on further Fed easing

August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 2.7% year-over-year; core PCE registered 2.9%. Despite inflation’s persistence, markets are pricing in a strong possibility of another rate cut in October.

The Southern Strategy AI Brief
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